Gold Breaks USD $5000oz and Silver Dominates Headlines

The first four weeks of 2026 have seen the precious metals complex continue its historic bull run. Gold surged past the USD $5,000 per troy ounce (oz) milestone for the first time ever earlier this week, extending a multi-year climb driven by risk aversion, central bank accumulation and geopolitical uncertainty.

At the time of writing, spot gold is trading around $5,500oz, a historic record high, generating a return of 27% year-to-date (YTD), amid heightened safe-haven flows linked to intensifying trade tensions and political uncertainty.

Silver has also exhibited extraordinary strength, rallying sharply with prices above USD $117oz, achieving a staggering 65% return YTD, far outpacing most major commodities and equities (ASX 200 +1.7%, S&P 500 + 1.9%). This relentless upward momentum reflects both monetary demand and structural supply constraints, particularly for silver.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio:

A key technical indicator for precious metals—the gold to silver ratio—has fallen significantly from last year’s historically elevated levels (Figure 1). After briefly exceeding 105:1 in April 2025, the ratio has retraced toward a 14 year low of 45:1, underlining silver’s relative outperformance over the past year (+285%) versus gold (+100%).

Historically, the ratio has ranged from as low as 20:1 to as high as 115:1 (for a very short-time period when COVID first hit), with a median and mean of 63:1 and 60:1 respectively since 1969.  

This compression signals that market participants are increasingly rebalancing into silver as industrial demand and physical supply tightness intensify, while the white metal is also benefiting from the current macroeconomic backdrop—much like gold is.

Historically speaking, the gold-to-silver ratio has demonstrated strong mean reversion properties. While historical trends don’t necessarily predict future price movements, the ratio’s current extreme lows in comparison to the historical mean are hard to ignore and have rarely been seen since the late 1980s. Thus, either an outperformance of gold or a correction in the silver price would not surprise in the near term.

Figure 1: Gold/Silver Ratio (Jan 1970–Jan 2026)

Sources: LBMA, ABC Bullion

In summary, the opening weeks of 2026 have reinforced the strength and durability of the current precious metals bull market. Record gold prices, exceptional silver outperformance and a historically low gold-to-silver ratio highlight a market being driven by a powerful combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, USD weakness, geopolitical risk and tightening physical supply dynamics.

While near-term volatility remains possible following such rapid gains, the broader structural backdrop continues to favour precious metals as both defensive assets and strategic portfolio allocations as the year unfolds.

Thank you for choosing ABC Bullion.

Jordan Eliseo
General Manager, ABC Bullion

Luke Tyler
Market and Business Analyst, ABC Bullion

^{Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Australian Bullion Company (NSW) Pty Limited (ABN 82 002 858 602) (ABC). The information contained in this document or internet related link (collectively, Document) is of a general nature and is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to constitute advice, nor to influence any person in making a decision in relation to any precious metal or related product. To the extent that any advice is provided in this Document, it is general advice only and has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs (your Personal Circumstances). Before acting on any such general advice, we recommend that you obtain professional advice and consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your Personal Circumstances. If the advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition of any precious metal or related product, you should obtain independent professional advice before making any decision about whether to acquire it. Although the information and opinions contained in this document are based on sources, we believe to be reliable, to the extent permitted by law, ABC and its associated entities do not warrant, represent or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is accurate, complete, reliable or current. The information is subject to change without notice, and we are under no obligation to update it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. If you intend to rely on the information, you should independently verify and assess the accuracy and completeness and obtain professional advice regarding its suitability for your Personal Circumstances. To the extent possible, ABC, its associated entities, and any of its or their officers, employees and agents accepts no liability for any loss or damage relating to any use or reliance on the information in this document. It is intended for the use of ABC clients and may not be distributed or reproduced without consent. © Australian Bullion Company (NSW) Pty Limited 2020.}