Market Consolidates as New Financial Year Approaches!

Precious metals markets were in consolidation mode this week, despite the continued conflict between Iran and Israel, which had seen gold in particular, open trading with a strong bid on Monday.

Since hitting highs at more than USD $3,400oz, gold has fallen by just over USD $75oz (-2%), with investors trimming positions across the course of the week.

Silver too has failed to hang onto gains seen earlier in the week, with the metal at one point rallying above USD $37oz. While giving back part of that gain in the last 24 hours, silver still looks well supported, with the USD $35oz now looking like a price floor, with silver likely to be well bought on any weakness from here.

Platinum has also been caught up in the recent volatility, with the metal last trading near USD $1,300oz and AUD $2,000oz, with clients of ABC Bullion continuing to include the precious metal in their portfolio in near record levels.

Precious Metal Market Developments

With gold and silver leading markets higher in 2025, there continues to be a significant amount of commentary surrounding the outlook for precious metals, and notable developments in physical markets.

In the last week we have seen:

• Citi analysts forecast a significant drop in the gold price, citing growing optimism about economic growth, with the Citi team suggesting gold will drop below USD $3,000oz before the end of 2025.

• The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey record “long gold” as the most crowded trade for the third month in a row, while the same survey shows a net 31% of institutional investors are now short the USD, the highest reading in 20 years.

• The Global Alternatives Conference in New York hosted a panel session in gold, hard assets and global commodities which noted we are now in a world of heightened geopolitical tensions, with inflation and tariffs likely to cause concerns for the foreseeable future, with this backdrop supporting the outlook for gold.

• The World Gold Council released an update on Central Bank Gold Reserves, which noted that; “central banks see gold making up a growing share of their reserve portfolios. 76% of respondents believe that gold will hold a (moderately or significantly) higher share of total reserves five years from now, up from 69% last year."

Finally, Societe Generale released a great report on commodities, which delved into the outlook for gold in detail. Their report noted that; “Gold demand has undergone a structural shift driven by stagflation concerns, tariff-driven woes leading to extraordinary high uncertainty levels, and of course, continued flows into gold from central banks as dollar diversification remains a key objective for many countries.”

All About Gold in Singapore

Earlier this week, I joined several of my colleagues from both ABC Bullion and ABC Refinery at the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference (APPMC), hosted by the Singapore Bullion Market Association (SBMA).

The conference is always a highlight of the precious metals calendar, with gold’s importance in Asia, and Asia’s importance to the global gold market going from strength to strength in the last two decades.

I had the honour of hosting the final session of the conference, which was a panel session discussing the recent performance, and just as importantly,  the outlook for the precious metal market in the period ahead.

I was joined by three of the most respected names in the bullion industry;

• Nikos Kavalis: Managing Director – Metals Focus Singapore

• Bart Melek: Global Head of Commodity Market Strategy – TD Securities

• Yuichi (Bruce) Ikemizu: Representative Director, Japanese Bullion Market Association (JBMA)

All three participants were unanimous in their view that precious metal markets had surprised to the upside this year (relative to expectations at the beginning of 2025), which is unsurprising given both gold and silver are up more than 20%, while platinum has also broken out.

There was also a discussion around the strength of central bank gold buying, which was highly topical given the recent ECB report that gold is now the second-largest reserve asset held by central banks, overtaking the EUR.

The discussion touched on why this trend is expected to continue (a combination of geopolitics, debt and deficit concerns as well as de-dollarisation), why it is likely to remain confined to emerging and developing market central banks, with Nikos noting they are playing “catch up” to developed market counterparts in terms of their gold holdings as a share of total reserve assets.

Bart in particular spoke about some of the supply and demand dynamics in the silver market, and why the outlook for silver remains so positive, though the consensus view is the gold to silver ratio (GSR) will remain elevated for some time to come, with a risk it re-touches the 100 level in a more extended consolidation phase for the precious metal market.

The role of ETFs in the gold market was also a subject of discussion, given this market mostly saw outflows for three years from 2021 to 2024, with Asia helping drive the turnaround in 2025. This was something of a historical outlier given it has been North American and European investors that have driven the ETF market for most of the past two decades, with Bruce discussing Japan’s love affair with all things gold, how younger Japanese investors are embracing digital solutions, and why gold priced in YEN has been such a fantastic way to both preserve and grow wealth.

Lastly, we discussed which precious metal would be the “must own” for the next 12 months if people could only pick one to hold.

Gold was the unanimous view.

Jordan Eliseo
General Manager, ABC Bullion Australia

^{Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Australian Bullion Company (NSW) Pty Limited (ABN 82 002 858 602) (ABC). The information contained in this document or internet related link (collectively, Document) is of a general nature and is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to constitute advice, nor to influence any person in making a decision in relation to any precious metal or related product. To the extent that any advice is provided in this Document, it is general advice only and has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs (your Personal Circumstances). Before acting on any such general advice, we recommend that you obtain professional advice and consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your Personal Circumstances. If the advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition of any precious metal or related product, you should obtain independent professional advice before making any decision about whether to acquire it. Although the information and opinions contained in this document are based on sources, we believe to be reliable, to the extent permitted by law, ABC and its associated entities do not warrant, represent or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is accurate, complete, reliable or current. The information is subject to change without notice, and we are under no obligation to update it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. If you intend to rely on the information, you should independently verify and assess the accuracy and completeness and obtain professional advice regarding its suitability for your Personal Circumstances. To the extent possible, ABC, its associated entities, and any of its or their officers, employees and agents accepts no liability for any loss or damage relating to any use or reliance on the information in this document. It is intended for the use of ABC clients and may not be distributed or reproduced without consent. © Australian Bullion Company (NSW) Pty Limited 2020.}