Market Updates

Gold failed to hold the recent support level of USD$1,280 this week so we saw some selling purely on the back of the technical setup, as news was fairly absent this week. Stop losses aplenty would have sat just below this level for speculators long gold, so triggering of stops provided a quick sell-off down to the lowest price of 2019, USD$1,274 per ounce. Silver didn’t quite react as much and trades at the same price this time last week at USD$15 per ounce at time of writing.

Gold continued to dance around the USD$1,300 per ounce mark, before trading lower to the exact price of this time last week ($1,292 per ounce). Silver trades just below $15 per ounce at time of writing and the Gold Silver Ratio remains at an incredibly high 85. For gold in USD, the daily chart below shows the range we appear to be stuck in until gold breaks either side. Support seems to be around $1,280 and we currently trade just above the 100-day moving average for now.

Precious metals stabilised this week in USD after the sharp decline last Thursday night that would have triggered cascading stop losses, as gold failed to hold above $1,300. Gold is trading at USD$1,293.50 at time of writing and silver remains at USD$15.16, so little changed from last Friday’s update. Gold struggled to make any ground this week as it was weighed down by a firmer dollar and higher regional equity markets, although we seem to be consolidating at these levels after holding above the 100 day moving average, as mixed data is being released out of the US.

The battle for US$1,300 continued this week with the bulls taking the win for now – gold traded higher at $1,309 per ounce and silver was up slightly to USD$15.14. Fed chair Powell’s dovish comments sent the US dollar lower, seeing gold hitting a high of $1,320 before retreating. In local currency terms, the moves were somewhat muted, with gold slightly higher at AUD$1,845 per ounce and silver creeping higher to $21.80 per ounce. The AUD/USD seems vulnerable just above 71.00 US cents, with any rally seeming to be met with selling pressure.

After a week of consolidation, gold showed some strength this week moving up from the USD$1,280s and trading above the “13” handle briefly before encountering resistance right on the 20 day moving average, pulling back to USD$1,297 at time of writing. Silver followed suit and dropped 1% overnight to USD$15.18 per ounce. In local currency terms, the AUD/USD managed to survive an assault on the US 0.70c floor for now, so we are largely unchanged from last week at AUD$1,836 for gold and $21.65 per ounce for silver.

Precious metals eased lower this week with gold retreating to USD$1,313 on the back of a stronger US GDP print, and silver dropped to USD$15.60 per ounce. Palladium looks like it may have potentially found a top at USD$1,564 and platinum rallied sharply to USD$867 per ounce.

The rally continued this week with gold breaking out north of USD$1,320 and quickly running to a high of $1,346 per ounce, before retreating back to $1,327 currently. Silver followed and reached highs of USD$16.20 before pulling back to USD$15.90. The bull market in palladium continued to gain momentum, as the hottest precious metal on the planet right now spiked to almost USD$1,500 before retreating.

Gold had a relatively uneventful week this week, pulling back slightly to USD$1,312 as did silver to $15.62 per ounce. After a terrible performance last week, the AUD/USD recovered some ground to climb above 0.71 US cents, which sees gold trading at AUD$1,849 and silver just above AUD $22.10.

Gold in USD terms has managed to crack through the $1,300 resistance level this week, trading at USD$1,320, with silver rallying up through USD$16.00 per ounce at time of writing.
This week saw a big jump in the AUD to 0.725c, so in local currency terms we trade close to $1,817 per ounce and $22.20 for silver. The moves came on the back of flip-flopping Fed chair Powell having an epiphany and deciding to keep rates on hold, stating ‘the case for raising rates has weakened somewhat’.

Gold was relatively flat this week after failing to break through the key US$1,300 level mentioned in last week’s commentary. We currently trade at US$1,283 per ounce and silver dropped back down to US$15.40 per ounce. The AUD/USD lost some ground so in local currency terms we are trading ever so close to $1,800 per ounce for gold and $21.50 for silver.

Waiting and watching in anticipation to see if gold is able to crack through near term resistance at the $1,300 level. We are currently trading around USD$1,292 and silver $15.50 per ounce. With the AUD slipping back to 0.719, gold trades at $1,800 and silver $21.72 in local currency terms, at time of writing.

Volatility in financial markets continued in December, leading to some pretty amazing moves in forex, equities and precious metals during the break. After recent consolidation short-term, gold in USD continues the battle for the $1,300 handle and we were trading just under this key level this week, but so far resistance at this level has stemmed the rally, with gold retreating to USD $1,288 and silver to USD $15.60.

With the end of 2018 quickly approaching, this will be our last market update for the year. So something a little different, we will take a look back on 2018 with some of the more interesting charts in finance that defined a year of excessive risk appetite across multiple asset classes, and potentially, several market tops.

After a sharp rally Friday night, gold continued to edge higher this week before encountering some resistance at the USD$1,250 level.  Overall, short-term trend appears positive and we are currently trading around USD$1,245 for gold per ounce and silver USD$14.72, higher than this time last week. In local currency terms, the AUD/USD is slightly lower at 0.722, with gold trading at AUD$1,728 and silver at $20.65.

Gold staged a breakout this week as panic struck equity markets on Tuesday night. Gold jumped to USD $1,238 and silver hit USD$14.50. In local currency terms, the rally in precious metals combined with a drop in the AUD/USD to 0.724c boosted gold prices past AUD $1,700 and silver back above $20 per ounce. A tip of the hat to those clients capitalising on the initial spike in AUD, which saw gold start the week at a low of $1,655.

Gold held a relatively tight trading range this week as we currently trade slightly lower at USD $1,221 per ounce, with silver sitting around USD $14.30 per ounce at time of writing.
Not a very action-packed week for precious metals markets as participants digested the statements of the Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell.

Precious metals tiptoed higher this week, despite USD strength remaining. Gold in USD held the all-important psychological $1,200 handle successfully and has climbed to USD $1,228 at time of writing. Silver needs to hold USD $14 and has been successful so far, with prices hovering around USD $14.50 at present.
In local currency terms, both metals are trading slightly higher at AUD $1,694 and AUD $20.20 respectively with the AUD ever so slightly lower than last Friday.

It’s been another volatile week for precious metal prices, with gold at one point falling below USD $1,200oz, before rallying to current levels around USD $1,215oz. Silver has also been affected, trading as low as USD $13.90oz, though like gold it has reversed the losses seen earlier in the week, and last traded at USD $14.40oz.

If you think it’s been a tough week for equity markets and commodity bulls, spare a thought for those with their money in cryptocurrencies.

Last trading just above USD $14oz and below AUD $20oz, it’s been a tough few weeks for silver, which is now down almost USD $1oz, or 5% since the start of November. The decline in silver has helped bring the gold to silver ratio (GSR) to 85:1, more than double what it was back in 2011. As per the chart below, silver is now at its cheapest point relative to gold in 25 years.

Whilst Japanese economic output has grown over the last five or six years, it’s been very slow going, unlike the assets on the BOJ balance sheet, which have exploded since 2011, as the nation’s central bank has bought up a huge stockpile of Japanese government bonds, as well as stocks and ETFs.

President Trump’s tax cuts and fiscal stimulus were always going to provide a sugar hit for the economy, with higher levels of growth than would otherwise have been seen.
The downside to that stimulus was always going to be seen in rising deficits, and this week we saw a stark illustration of that, with the US Federal government posting a USD $100 billion shortfall for the month of October.

Whilst the government is making noises about encouraging the banks to lend more freely, and surveys of Australians suggest they think it's the best time in three years to buy a house, the market itself is still deteriorating, with prices and transaction activity continuing to fall.

It’s been a savage few months for oil bulls, with the price of West Texas Crude (WTI) falling from approximately USD $76 per barrel to USD $56 per barrel in barely a month. That's a fall of over 25% – an extraordinary move which can be seen clearly in the chart below, which plots the price of WTI crude over the last year.

Precious metal prices for local investors have eased this week, as a bounce in the value of the Australian dollar helped pushed gold down toward AUD $1,686oz, whilst silver is at AUD $20.04oz. Prices in USD have also corrected – gold was last trading at USD $1,224oz, with silver at USD $14.55oz, as the metals remain within their recent trading ranges.